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Is Inflation About to Take Off? That’s the Wrong Question

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The warnings that higher inflation lurks around the corner are starting to show up everywhere.They are appearing in some business surveys, with companies looking to raise prices as they prepare for a post-pandemic economy. They are showing up in the bond market, where price moves in the last few months imply that big-money investors expect consumer prices will start to rise faster. And they are apparent in the news media, from magazine covers to financial news segments.But inflation itself is not showing up: The Consumer Price Index in December showed only a 1.4 percent rise in what Americans paid …

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