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Higher Inflation Ahead? Maybe. But Don’t Even Try to Predict It.


But, no: The study shows that the bond market is no good at this, either. Again, the research draws finer distinctions. Bond mavens are a little better than economists at predicting short-term inflation, while economists are a smidgen better than bond mavens at looking a few years ahead.Daily Business BriefingUpdated July 2, 2021, 3:46 p.m. ET“However,” Mr. Gagnon and Mr. Sarsenbayev wrote, “neither bond markets nor economists have a great track record at forecasting inflation.” So it would be unwise to take comfort from current prices, which suggest that inflation will be no more than 2 percent next year. To the …

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