In an interview, James D. Hamilton, professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, and a leading expert on the economic effects of oil shocks, said they had “made major contributions to recessions over many decades.” At current oil price and supply levels, the effects of the Russian war “are fairly manageable for the American economy.”But Professor Hamilton pointed out that Russia’s oil, which amounts to about 10 percent of world production, could not be easily replaced if totally cut off — an outcome that he does not believe to be likely. Nonetheless, even the loss of a substantial part of it could constitute an oil price shock rivaling those of the 1970s, he said.Furthermore, cuts in the availability of Russian commodities like palladium, which is important for the catalytic converters in gasoline-fueled cars, and nickel, which is used in car batteries and for many other purposes, also amount …
