Is the U.S. Entering a Recession? Here’s Why It’s Hard to Say.

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Consumer spending, for example, grew at a solid 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter, adjusted for inflation, and most forecasters believe it grew in the second quarter, too, albeit more slowly. Job growth has remained robust. Other measures, such as industrial production and inflation-adjusted income, have stalled in recent months, but haven’t fallen significantly.Those indicators are backward-looking, however. To assess conditions in real time, forecasters typically look at other measures that have historically been better at showing the economy’s direction. The pandemic has made that more difficult, however, by scrambling typic …

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