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As China reopens and data surprises, economists are starting to get less gloomy


The European Central Bank is expected to continue raising rates aggressively in the short-term as the euro zone economy proves more resilient than anticipated.Haussmann Visuals | Moment | Getty ImagesAfter China’s reopening and a deluge of positive data surprises in recent weeks, economists are upgrading their previously gloomy outlooks for the global economy.Data releases last week showed signs of inflation slowing and less severe downturns in activity, prompting Barclays on Friday to raise its global growth forecast to 2.2% in 2023, up 0.5 percentage points from its last estimate in mid-November.”This is largely driven by the 1.0pp increase in our China growth prediction to 4.8% from last week, but also reflects a 0.7pp increase for the euro area (to -0.1%, largely on a much better Germany) forecasts, and, to lesser extent, upgrades of 0.2pp for the US (to 0.6%), Japan (to 1.0%) and the UK (-0.7%),” said Barclays Head of Economic Research Christian Keller.”The U.S. would still experience a recession, as we predict slightly negative growth in three quarters (Q2 -Q4 2023), but it would be quite shallow, as annual 2023 GDP growth would now remain positive.” U.S. December CPI edged down 0.1% month-on-month to notch 6.5% annually, in line with expectations and mostly driven by falling energy prices and slowing food price increases.However, Keller su …

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