The recession was supposed to have begun by now.Last year, as policymakers relentlessly raised interest rates to combat the fastest inflation in decades, forecasters began talking as though a recession — economic contraction rather than growth — was not a question of “if” but “when.” Possibly in 2022. Probably in the first half of 2023. Surely by the end of the year. As recently as December, less than a quarter of economists expected the United States to avoid a recession, a survey found.But the year is more than half over, and the recession is nowhere to be found. Not, certainly, in the job market, as the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, is hovering near a five-decade low. Not in consumer spending, which continues to grow, nor in corporate profits, which remain robust. Not even in the housing market, the industry that is usually most sensitive to rising interest …
